Scenario 04
THE ADVERTISING BET
SiriusXM's own ad-supported tier is eroding the premium subscription faster than it's adding revenue. Model how far the damage goes — and whether there's a way out that doesn't sacrifice the business to save it.
SiriusXM Play launched July 2025 at sub-$7. ARPU already declining: $15.11 in 2025, down $0.10 YoY. Management has not disclosed downgrade data.